Garrett Crochet

Crochet emerged as a first-round fantasy pitcher after posting a 2.59 ERA with 255 K in his breakout 2025 season. Now in Boston, his early 2026 Statcast shows an xBA against of .254 and a 6.7% barrel rate, both slightly elevated from his elite 2025 marks (.210 xBA, 7.3% barrel). The strikeout rate remains elite with 22 K across his first three starts. Steamer projects a 3.02 ERA with 239 K over 193 IP.

The key stat to watch is his velocity trend as the season progresses. Crochet had never thrown more than 150 professional innings before 2025. If his fastball stays above 96 mph through August, the production should hold. A sustained drop below 95 mph is a fatigue signal. His early game logs show a mix of dominant outings and one rough start, which is typical for high-K pitchers.

Verdict: Hold. Crochet is a top-5 fantasy pitcher with SP1 upside. The workload risk is real but manageable, and his strikeout rate is elite enough to offset the occasional blowup. Only sell if you can get a top-15 hitter in return.