DETSP

Tarik Skubal

2026 fantasy baseball stats, Steamer ROS projections, and Baseball Savant Statcast metrics.

Fantasy Outlook

Skubal won back-to-back AL Cy Young awards and enters 2026 as the consensus SP1 in fantasy. His combination of high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and elite contact suppression makes him one of the few pitchers worth a first-round pick. Steamer projects a 2.79 ERA with 243 K over 200 IP. His 2025 xBA against was .206 with an 8.1% barrel rate, both in the elite tier.

The key stat to watch is his xBA against in 2026. Early-season pitching Statcast is volatile, but any sustained xBA against above .250 could signal that hitters are adjusting to his pitch mix. His barrel rate against and hard hit rate are the secondary indicators. In 2025 his hard hit rate against was 33%, one of the best in baseball.

Verdict: Hold. Skubal is the SP1 in fantasy and should be treated as untouchable. The only scenario where you sell is if you are getting a top-5 hitter in return and have pitching depth to absorb the loss.

2026 Season Stats

Games7
Games Started7
Innings Pitched43.1
Wins3
Losses2
Saves0
ERA2.7
WHIP0.9
Strikeouts45
K/99.3
BB/91.3

Steamer ROS Projections

W (proj)14
SV (proj)0
IP (proj)199.8
ERA (proj)2.8
WHIP (proj)1.0
K (proj)243

Baseball Savant Statcast

xwOBA.284
xBA.262
xSLG.354
Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph
Max Exit Velo111.8 mph
Barrel %5.3%
Hard Hit %43.0%

2025 Season

2025 Season Stats

Games31
Games Started31
Innings Pitched195.1
Wins13
Losses6
Saves0
ERA2.2
WHIP0.9
Strikeouts241
K/911.1
BB/91.5

2025 Statcast

xwOBA.258
xBA.206
xSLG.344
Avg Exit Velo86.1 mph
Max Exit Velo114.2 mph
Barrel %8.1%
Hard Hit %33.0%

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