Tarik Skubal
2026 fantasy baseball stats, Steamer ROS projections, and Baseball Savant Statcast metrics.
Fantasy Outlook
Skubal won back-to-back AL Cy Young awards and enters 2026 as the consensus SP1 in fantasy. His combination of high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and elite contact suppression makes him one of the few pitchers worth a first-round pick. Steamer projects a 2.79 ERA with 243 K over 200 IP. His 2025 xBA against was .206 with an 8.1% barrel rate, both in the elite tier.
The key stat to watch is his xBA against in 2026. Early-season pitching Statcast is volatile, but any sustained xBA against above .250 could signal that hitters are adjusting to his pitch mix. His barrel rate against and hard hit rate are the secondary indicators. In 2025 his hard hit rate against was 33%, one of the best in baseball.
Verdict: Hold. Skubal is the SP1 in fantasy and should be treated as untouchable. The only scenario where you sell is if you are getting a top-5 hitter in return and have pitching depth to absorb the loss.
2026 Season Stats
Steamer ROS Projections
Baseball Savant Statcast
2025 Season
2025 Season Stats
2025 Statcast
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